Mark Webber, Red Bull, Spa-Francorchamps, 2011

Webber: Monza win would be a “massive blow”

2011 Italian Grand Prix

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Mark Webber, Red Bull, Spa-Francorchamps, 2011
Webber backed up Vettel for a Red Bull one-two at high-speed Spa

Mark Webber says a win for Red Bull at Monza would be a “massive psychological blow” for their rivals.

Red Bull have previously not been able to exert their usual dominance on F1’s fastest tracks.

But their one-two finish at Spa-Francorchamps two weeks ago gives Webber cause for optimism heading into this weekend’s race at the fastest track on the calendar.

Writing in his column for the BBC Webber said: “If we can pull out another strong result this weekend, it would be like what in football they call a six-pointer – when you beat a team that is fighting for the same thing as you.

“And it wouldn’t just help us mathematically; it would be a massive psychological blow to our rivals as well at this point of the season.”

Webber added he is disappointed at seeing the Turkish Grand Prix disappear from the 2012 F1 calendar:

“In some ways, that’s a shame. They were super-friendly there, and it’s a good track, with what has become very quickly a famous corner – the high-speed multi-apex Turn Eight.

“But the fans just did not turn up. We were racing in front of the marshals. It was so disappointing.”

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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35 comments on “Webber: Monza win would be a “massive blow””

  1. Red Bull already have both titles secured, but it would be extremely nice to see Mark take his first win at Monza.

  2. Not only would it almost wrap up the championship (unless it’s Mark winning and Vettel suffers misfortune), but it would make me pretty much despair for next year too! “Six-pointer” is definitely the right term!

  3. I think Mark is pretty much right about winning at Monza. It would bury all real hope anyone might still have at a shot at the championship.
    And the scary thing is, with the relatively moderate temperatures Ferrari might be out of the equation already, so it only needs Button to be slow again in Qualli and Hamilton to drop it in the first lap or two to make it easy on the championship squad.

    1. Maybe Mercedes can have another good start, this time without one of them at the back of the grid, so they have a chance of battling with for the lead early on, well enough to let Button get there too, and have Ferrari decide for a middle short stint on primes to get those out of the way?

      But it probably will happen to block Alonso early on, get HAM in need of overtaking the Mercs …, Button stuck behind Alonoso so he can later fight for the podium while Alonso is again stuck being a bit too slow on primes later on. Massa will be fighting to keep Sutil behind, but have a pitstop to finish him off. And Webber with a so-so start to follow Vettel at a distance. Yah. Looking forward to some nice fights in the midfield :-p

    2. Jenson wasnt slow last year. and the temperature is gonna be excellent for Ferrari. we r gonna repeat last year if not a better result..

  4. ‘massive psychological blow’ – in my opinion Mark should be worried there will be no ‘massive tyre blow’

    1. Red Bull have learned their lesson. They’re not going to go outside Pirelli’s camber parameters now that they know the FIA won’t let them change out their damaged tyres.

    2. The Blisters on the Tyres were mainly due to Higher than Expected Camber Setups/Levels.With Dry & Warm Weather likely throughout the Weekend,There is a very low Chance of that problem occurring again for the Teams

  5. Vettel simply has to retire from this race for there to be any chance of a challenge to the title.

    But… even then…

    1. On the other hand, if he wins Monza and Singapore, he seals his second drivers’ title.

      1. I’m useless at Maths. Is that true regardless of other drivers results?

          1. Thanks for that, an interesting article! So, Vettel could win it by Singapore! Frightening!

          2. Incorrect. If Vettel wins the next 2 races; he will definitely knock Lewis out no matter what. However; that is not the case for the other drivers. If Vettel gets 50 points in the next two races, the following has to happen:

            Webber has to score LESS THAN 16 points
            Alonso has to score LESS THAN 26 points
            Button has to score LESS THAN 34 points (he has to get 2 second places; 2nd and 3rd would NOT do)

            Bearing in mind that you’re talking of TWO races to the future; with a possible maximum of 36 (2 2nd places at 18 points apiece) if Vettel wins; then these 3 drivers still have a chance to be in with a title shot EVEN IF VETTEL WINS THE NEXT TWO.

            Look at comment 31 of JA’s piece; where it’s posted by “Raymond.” There’s a massive summary that I posted there. I’d post it in the forums here if anyone wants me to.

    2. No its done, Vettel could DNF the next 4 races and still have a point lead.

      Chances are the way this season swaps winners, Vettel could probably DNF all but 1 remaining races and take the title.

    3. Alternatively, Vettel can will the title by finishing fourth in all the remaining races.

      Consider that fourth is the worst result he’s had all year, and he’s only finished there once

      1. Admittedly Vettel completely deserves the title this year, he may have the best car but he’s outclassed Webber and been completely unflappable (we’ll forgive him the final lap in Montreal).

        I do love a final race showdown, but I don’t begrudge the Championship finishing earlier this year as Vettel truly deserves it.

      2. The thing is too its likely he could go worse than that and still win. All of these equations work on their being a clear driver to take charge, if you took Vettel out Webber, Alonso, Hamilton and Button would still swap wins between one another.

    4. Here’s a little something I cooked up a while back and posted in the “points after belgium” article on this site; you might wanna take a lookie see.

      Back after the amazing Spa Grand Prix with another points summary.

      Vettel 259
      Webber 167
      Alonso 157
      Button 149
      Hamilton 146

      There’s 175 to play for; and again, still open. Here are the gaps:

      Webber -92
      Alonso -102
      Button -110
      Hamilton -113

      It’s not possible for Vettel to wrap it up by Monza. Singapore, however… is possible.

      In Singapore, there will be 125 points to play for. So. By the Singaporean checkered flag, he has to, over the next TWO races now, outscore:
      Webber by 34 points (17 points average)
      Alonso by 24 points (12 points average)
      Button by 16 points (8 points average)
      Hamilton by 13 points (6.5 points average) – a win is 7 points; so winning the next two would knock Hamilton out of the race, even if Hamilton scores 2nd in both races.

      For him to do so by the Suzuka checkered, he has to outscore (over the next 3 races):
      Webber by 9 points (3 points average).
      Webber is the only one “above the curve” in this regard. The others, however, have to catch up a set amount of points. Vettel can let the following happen, and still win:
      Alonso has to outscore him by 1 point (.33 average)
      Button has to outscore him by 9 points (3 average)
      Hamilton has to outscore him by 12 points (4 average)

      By Korea, with only 75 points left on the table, EVERYONE is below the curve. Note that for all the stats below, if the guys outscore him by that number of points, Vettel will be champ by 1 point

      Webber has to outscore him by 16 points (4 average)
      Alonso has to outscore him by 26 points (6.5 average)
      Button has to outscore him by 34 points (8.5 average)
      Hamilton has to outscore him by 37 points (9.25 average)

      By India:
      Webber has to outscore him by 41 points (8.2 average)
      Alonso has to outscore him by 51 points (10.2 average)
      Button has to outscore him by 59 points (11.8 average)
      Hamilton has to outscore him by 62 points (12.4 average)

      By Abu Dhabi:
      Webber has to outscore him by 66 points (11 average)
      Alonso has to outscore him by 76 points (12.67 average)
      Button has to outscore him by 84 points (14 average)
      Hamilton has to outscore him by 87 points (14.5 average)

      By Brazil:
      Webber has to outscore him by 91 points (13 average)
      Alonso has to outscore him by 101 points (14.43 average)
      Button has to outscore him by 109 points (15.57 average)
      Hamilton has to outscore him by 112 points (16 average)

      So. Singapore looks unlikely, but if he can gain 9 points (over the next 3 races) over Webber, and not lose any gap towards his other contenders, he WILL be champion, by Suzuka. With FOUR RACES remaining.

      If you linearly extrapolate all of their points now, the two McLarens will be knocked out by Singapore; and Vettel will win the WDC in Suzuka.

      1. Nice effort!

        It would actually be great to see Seb win at Suzkua, I miss the days when championships were decided there, as the last race (penultimate before my time).

        1. Suzuka is the most likely; yes.

          It’s not much of an effort really. Just that it’s running on a spreadsheet I’ve been using for years. It’s HIGHLY complex; I took several hours a day for about a week or so to get everything pointed to the right directions.It’s horribly, horribly painstaking.

          I even have a text box in the spreadsheet as a dummy-proof guide to teach me how to use it; as I can never remember!

  6. I don’t think it would be a massive blow because I don’t think anyone really cares about the title now. It’s pretty much over. If this race was early in the season and there was still a lot to play for then yes it would but not now the points are massive.

  7. It is a massive blow cos Weber is still second in the championship and he hasnt won a race yet. So much for maclaren and ferrari better race pace

  8. The big question and possibly most interesting championship quirk is will Mark Webber come second in the championship without making one decent start all season or will he surprise us by getting away without losing a place before the first corner at one or more of the remaining races. Anyone care to make a prediction which race or races he might start well?

    1. A race where they start under the safety car.

      1. Even at Canada he lost places on the first racing lap… although Lewis was to blame for that one

    2. Webber seems to start like He paid for the clutch Himself :-)

  9. The only psychological blow that will effect the championship is if Webber wins an Vettel doesn`t finish, apart from that the rest is all about second spot..Yawn..It`s been in the bag since Valencia.

  10. I think Vettel will be Champion in Korea, just because it has to go pretty much perfectly for him to win it at Suzuka. On a different note, i hope Massa wins this Italian Grand Prix, would be nice.

  11. His word should be if I win then that will be a ‘massive psychological blow’ for Vettel! I don’ think there is any more chance left for him if he don’t bag a better result then Vettel this weekend.

    1. Webber is probably reffering to 2012 also. Webber will have a hope in 2012 with the EBD ban, just a hope, And the Maccas will be woeful in 2012 unless they make a MP-RB8 like Ferrari will be making a RB8-Italia

      1. I have to say… Sorry for clashing with you all the time (on JA’s website as well as here lol!) But I disagree.

        Let’s assume that the rumors are true; and Webber’s got a technique better suited to the demands of driving a car with an EBD with no hot/cold blowing (a la Silverstone)

        With the EBD; if you did cold/hot blowing off the throttle, it made the car’s downforce predictable again. This is because whether you stamped on the throttle, or were off it, exhaust gasses were still blowing to create more downforce.

        With the EBD; if you didn’t do hot/cold blowing off the throttle, it made the car’s downforce UNpredictable; as when you’re off the throttle you have an oversteering car and when you’re on it you have a stable car. Webber’s technique maximised the fact that the car would have to be driven in a certain way to get a stable car, and to maximise the time you were on the throttle.

        Without the EBD, it would return to a predictable level of downforce; on/off the throttle pedal and you wouldn’t change the level of downforce.

        So the advantage given by Webber’s technique in that scenario is neutralised.

  12. Vettel taking the title at Suzuka seems most likely to me (He already has almost a 4 win gap of races in points so Suzuka seems likely) however I wouldnt be surprised if a Mercedes wins at Monza their straight line speed is higher than any other team. So its very very possible/likely Schumacher or Rosberg can win at Monza this weekend.

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