For a significant part of qualifying it seemed as though Lewis Hamilton would have the benefit of one or more cars separating him from championship rival Nico Rosberg on the grid.
Only a fine late effort from Rosberg moved him up from fourth on the grid to second behind Hamilton. The championship leader had converged with Hamilton on set-up for qualifying but clearly hadn’t been quite able to match his team mate’s overall pace.
While the Mercedes drivers will start the race on the soft tyres the Red Bull pair will have the benefit of using super-softs. These should provide more immediate grip off the start line and get up to temperature more quickly.
The latter could be particularly useful as following today’s cloudy spells tomorrow is expected to be overcast again, leading to cooler track temperatures. However it will remain a tall order for the Red Bull drivers with their straight-line speed deficit to out-drag the Mercedes drivers on the longest run to turn one of the season: a whopping 890 metres.
Unless, of course, one of the W07 drivers gets a bad start. This has been a theme of the season for them, Hamilton much more so than Rosberg.
Starting on the super-soft tyres may give Red Bull a chance to run a two-stop strategy and make best use of the performance in their chassis. This will be much easier if at least one of them can get ahead of the silver cars at the start, perhaps relying on the two championship contenders not wanting to risk a collision with a non-combatant.
If Red Bull do manoeuvre one of their cars in front of a Mercedes, will it be able to defend its position? Last weekend Daniel Ricciardo’s race engineer was confident Rosberg wouldn’t have been able to pass their car.
Interestingly, both Mercedes and Red Bull have revealed they had a high degree of confidence in their chosen strategies. Max Verstappen even said Red Bull didn’t have soft tyres ready to go in Q2.
To keep his championship hopes alive Hamilton must win again in Mexico. However if he has a poor race and doesn’t finish in the top nine while his team mate wins, the championship will go to Rosberg.
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The presence of Nico Hulkenberg in fifth place will vex Ferrari as the Mercedes-powered Force India may prove difficult to overtake. Like Mercedes, the Ferrari drivers will also start on the softs. Interestingly, Force India’s key rivals Williams have a clear idea whether they would be better off starting on the softs or super-softs.
“It was a shame we couldn’t get through with the [soft] tyre because now we’re starting the race on super-softs,” commented Valtteri Bottas. “We just really need to try and be clever with our strategy because there’s a big difference between the super-soft, soft and the medium tyre on this track in terms of tyre life.”
The full extent of those difference will become clear early in tomorrow’s race. Last year the lack of grip proved a significant obstacle for overtaking and 12 months later it seems that situation hasn’t improved. However the tight nature of the track and limited run-off in places could increase the possibility of a Safety Car intervention – something which played a decisive role last weekend.
Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’19.447 | 1’19.137 (-0.310) | 1’18.704 (-0.433) |
| 2 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’19.996 | 1’19.761 (-0.235) | 1’18.958 (-0.803) |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’19.874 | 1’18.972 (-0.902) | 1’19.054 (+0.082) |
| 4 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’19.713 | 1’19.553 (-0.160) | 1’19.133 (-0.420) |
| 5 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 1’20.599 | 1’19.769 (-0.830) | 1’19.330 (-0.439) |
| 6 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’19.554 | 1’19.936 (+0.382) | 1’19.376 (-0.560) |
| 7 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’19.865 | 1’19.385 (-0.480) | 1’19.381 (-0.004) |
| 8 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’20.338 | 1’19.958 (-0.380) | 1’19.551 (-0.407) |
| 9 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’20.423 | 1’20.151 (-0.272) | 1’20.032 (-0.119) |
| 10 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1’20.457 | 1’20.169 (-0.288) | 1’20.378 (+0.209) |
| 11 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’20.552 | 1’20.282 (-0.270) | |
| 12 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’20.308 | 1’20.287 (-0.021) | |
| 13 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’21.333 | 1’20.673 (-0.660) | |
| 14 | Kevin Magnussen | Renault | 1’21.254 | 1’21.131 (-0.123) | |
| 15 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’21.062 | 1’21.536 (+0.474) | |
| 16 | Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | 1’21.363 | 1’21.785 (+0.422) | |
| 17 | Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | 1’21.401 | ||
| 18 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1’21.454 | ||
| 19 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | 1’21.692 | ||
| 20 | Esteban Ocon | Manor | 1’21.881 | ||
| 21 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’21.916 | ||
| 22 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 27.103 (1) | 30.786 (2) | 20.531 (1) |
| Nico Rosberg | 27.372 (6) | 30.864 (4) | 20.715 (5) |
| Max Verstappen | 27.307 (3) | 30.770 (1) | 20.703 (4) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 27.458 (8) | 30.848 (3) | 20.648 (2) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 27.509 (9) | 31.150 (6) | 20.671 (3) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 27.363 (4) | 31.195 (7) | 20.818 (9) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 27.235 (2) | 31.051 (5) | 20.743 (6) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 27.370 (5) | 31.275 (9) | 20.774 (7) |
| Felipe Massa | 27.393 (7) | 31.461 (10) | 20.974 (12) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 27.921 (16) | 31.266 (8) | 20.914 (10) |
| Fernando Alonso | 27.799 (14) | 31.521 (12) | 20.954 (11) |
| Sergio Perez | 27.581 (10) | 31.511 (11) | 20.807 (8) |
| Jenson Button | 27.733 (11) | 31.713 (13) | 20.994 (13) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 27.741 (12) | 32.015 (16) | 21.243 (16) |
| Marcus Ericsson | 27.880 (15) | 31.934 (14) | 21.248 (17) |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 27.745 (13) | 32.168 (18) | 21.322 (18) |
| Esteban Gutierrez | 27.955 (18) | 32.071 (17) | 21.233 (15) |
| Daniil Kvyat | 28.336 (21) | 31.995 (15) | 21.123 (14) |
| Felipe Nasr | 27.997 (20) | 32.297 (20) | 21.398 (19) |
| Esteban Ocon | 27.922 (17) | 32.245 (19) | 21.473 (21) |
| Romain Grosjean | 27.990 (19) | 32.352 (21) | 21.450 (20) |
| Jolyon Palmer |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 365.9 (227.4) | |
| 2 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | Mercedes | 365.3 (227.0) | -0.6 |
| 3 | Esteban Ocon | Manor | Mercedes | 363.6 (225.9) | -2.3 |
| 4 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 363.0 (225.6) | -2.9 |
| 5 | Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | Mercedes | 362.6 (225.3) | -3.3 |
| 6 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 362.4 (225.2) | -3.5 |
| 7 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | Mercedes | 361.9 (224.9) | -4.0 |
| 8 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 361.5 (224.6) | -4.4 |
| 9 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 360.9 (224.3) | -5.0 |
| 10 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 360.2 (223.8) | -5.7 |
| 11 | Kevin Magnussen | Renault | Renault | 360.2 (223.8) | -5.7 |
| 12 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | Ferrari | 358.9 (223.0) | -7.0 |
| 13 | Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | Ferrari | 358.8 (222.9) | -7.1 |
| 14 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 357.8 (222.3) | -8.1 |
| 15 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 357.7 (222.3) | -8.2 |
| 16 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | Mercedes | 357.6 (222.2) | -8.3 |
| 17 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 357.2 (222.0) | -8.7 |
| 18 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Honda | 357.0 (221.8) | -8.9 |
| 19 | Jenson Button | McLaren | Honda | 355.9 (221.1) | -10.0 |
| 20 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | Ferrari | 351.1 (218.2) | -14.8 |
| 21 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | Ferrari | 348.3 (216.4) | -17.6 |
Available tyre compounds
| Driver | Team | Medium | Soft | Super-soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Felipe Massa | Williams | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Sergio Perez | Force India | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Renault | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Felipe Nasr | Sauber | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jenson Button | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Esteban Ocon | Manor | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Over to you
Do Red Bull have any hope of passing a Mercedes at the start? And what can Ferrari salvage after their qualifying disappointment?
Share your views on the Mexican Grand Prix in the comments.
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mystic one (@mysticus)
30th October 2016, 1:23
Redbulls have hope of passing at least one mercedes unless both screws up start… and reds dont make mistake of course… i m guessing an action packed start and first corner…
stefano (@alfa145)
30th October 2016, 1:36
@keithcollantine I think there’s a bit of a mismatch on rosberg’s sector times
Keith Crossley
30th October 2016, 3:43
The sector times must be best of all Q sessions… some don’t add up right.
bukester (@bukester)
30th October 2016, 5:23
I have a feeling this race will be dreadfully boring with the Mercs finishing one and two in the same order they started. Hopefully the Hulk will impress from 5th and be able to split the Bulls.
sethje (@seth-space)
30th October 2016, 17:33
Indeed i seems the starts of HULK are very good and he could be the surprise during the start.
But i am afraid the Mercs are the ones who will suffer the most.
As far a Ros goes.. if he takes out Ham he is way closer to being champion. Not a nice thought but a realistic one.
hahostolze (@hahostolze)
30th October 2016, 6:32
Pirelli tweeted last night that they think the RBR strategy will work. I am very intrigued.
David
30th October 2016, 9:18
T1 could be interesting with both RBs going for it and both Merc drivers being scared of an incident as they fight for the title.
Mercs will be too quick on the medium tyres though for a real fight for the win.
mystic one (@mysticus)
30th October 2016, 10:39
Ham is mighty quick on the softs already, and unless he screws up at start, i dont think reds will challenge him… Ros is another story, he has been scruffy all sessions bar Q3 with all tyres… if he cant find his balance, i cant seem him comfy under pressure…
Mp4-23
30th October 2016, 12:16
It’s not too big of a strech to think both Red Bulls can finish the race ahead of Nico, given how much trouble he’s having to find the right balance of his car and how Red Bull looks quick on this track.
Black n Blue
30th October 2016, 12:33
The run down to turn one will be fascinating. Rosberg, provided he gets a remotely solid getaway, has so much road ahead of him to slipstream past Hamilton. The altitude effect will probably throw strategy a bit up in the air too. Such is the narrow operating window for the tyres here, that we won’t know who’s on the best tyre at the right time until about mid distance. It’s good in that respect that RBR are trying something different starting on the super-softs.
IJW (@)
30th October 2016, 13:07
Apparently the slipstream effect isn’t as pronounced at high altitudes, as it is at sea level. I think Hamilton had problems trying to use it to get pass Rosberg last year. Well, we will see in a few hours time.
TomD11 (@tomd11)
30th October 2016, 14:24
Yeah, because the air is less dense at higher altitudes, you encounter less drag in clear air, so the difference when compared to a slipstream is lessened.
David BR
30th October 2016, 15:29
Can’t help thinking Hamilton is going to get another DNF in the last three races, sealing Rosberg’s year, maybe here in Mexico.
Josh
30th October 2016, 16:03
I haven’t been this excited for a GP start since Melbourne. Even if Ham gets a good start he may end up in 3rd or 4th by turn 1. It’s gonna be fun to watch.
dutchtreat (@dutchtreat)
30th October 2016, 16:45
Go Red Bull…! Slaughter those Mercs.
Can they use their horns…?
x303 (@x303)
30th October 2016, 18:23
I expected Rosberg to be 4th on the grid. I hope the Bulls finish in front of him so we have a close run for the championship in the remaining races.