Formula One’s second visit to Baku has been much like the first so far. Mercedes have a clear pace advantage and the practice sessions have been action-packed with driver after driver heading for the escape roads.
Last year Mercedes kept their advantage in the race but the grand prix itself was, to say the least, a dreary affair. Will we get another anticlimax this time?
“I think it is a track that normally with this type of track things will happen so my guess is that we’re going to see a bit more of a mess than maybe before but who knows.”
As F1 practice and the support races have shown, any on-track problem could result in a significant disruption. It took almost ten minutes to clear the yellow flags when Jolyon Palmer’s Renault caught fire. And the F2 feature was cut short by three laps after Sean Gelael crashed and blocked the track.
In terms of the competition, the yawning gap between Mercedes and their rivals may seem like bad news on the face of it. But compared to last year, when one of the team’s cars was out on its own and the other languishing mid-pack, at least we have the possibility of a contest between the two. And, as we’ve seen already this year, Ferrari and Red Bull are likely to offer stronger competition in the race.
From a championship point of view there is also the intriguing question of whether and how Sebastian Vettel might get ahead of Kimi Raikkonen. If the top four were to finish in the same order they start, Hamilton would take the championship lead.
As Pirelli has erred on the more conservative side of the tyre options, there may be little room for manoeuvre as far as strategy goes. The medium tyre is unlikely to appear at all as the soft appears to last very well and every driver has saved one new set of them.
Practice showed that the low-grip surface and high minimum pressures makes warming the tyres difficult. In particular drivers have found it hard to get the fronts to warm up as quickly as the rears – note how violently Bottas was working his front tyres before he began his final lap in Q3.
These tyre warm-up problems are likely to discourage the half of the field which have a free choice of starting tyre from using the harder compound. The top ten will, of course, start on their Q2 tyres and as usual they all used the softest rubber available.
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Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’41.983 | 1’41.275 (-0.708) | 1’40.593 (-0.682) |
| 2 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’43.026 | 1’41.502 (-1.524) | 1’41.027 (-0.475) |
| 3 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’42.678 | 1’42.090 (-0.588) | 1’41.693 (-0.397) |
| 4 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’42.952 | 1’41.911 (-1.041) | 1’41.841 (-0.070) |
| 5 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’42.544 | 1’41.961 (-0.583) | 1’41.879 (-0.082) |
| 6 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’43.162 | 1’42.467 (-0.695) | 1’42.111 (-0.356) |
| 7 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1’43.051 | 1’42.751 (-0.300) | 1’42.186 (-0.565) |
| 8 | Lance Stroll | Williams | 1’43.613 | 1’42.284 (-1.329) | 1’42.753 (+0.469) |
| 9 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’43.165 | 1’42.735 (-0.430) | 1’42.798 (+0.063) |
| 10 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’42.857 | 1’42.215 (-0.642) | 1’43.414 (+1.199) |
| 11 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1’42.927 | 1’43.186 (+0.259) | |
| 12 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1’43.489 | 1’43.347 (-0.142) | |
| 13 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1’44.029 | 1’43.796 (-0.233) | |
| 14 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1’43.930 | 1’44.267 (+0.337) | |
| 15 | Pascal Wehrlein | Sauber | 1’44.317 | 1’44.603 (+0.286) | |
| 16 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’44.334 | ||
| 17 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’44.468 | ||
| 18 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’44.795 | ||
| 19 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 1’45.030 | ||
| 20 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 35.329 (1) | 40.746 (1) | 24.410 (1) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 35.352 (2) | 41.153 (4) | 24.453 (2) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 35.771 (4) | 41.162 (5) | 24.630 (5) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 35.828 (5) | 41.113 (3) | 24.664 (8) |
| Max Verstappen | 35.761 (3) | 41.067 (2) | 24.664 (8) |
| Sergio Perez | 35.934 (6) | 41.433 (8) | 24.744 (11) |
| Esteban Ocon | 36.092 (9) | 41.421 (6) | 24.541 (3) |
| Lance Stroll | 35.973 (7) | 41.515 (9) | 24.651 (7) |
| Felipe Massa | 36.112 (10) | 41.731 (10) | 24.743 (10) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 36.001 (8) | 41.428 (7) | 24.633 (6) |
| Daniil Kvyat | 36.149 (11) | 41.770 (12) | 24.623 (4) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 36.315 (12) | 41.738 (11) | 24.913 (13) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 36.634 (14) | 42.111 (13) | 24.816 (12) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 36.498 (13) | 42.186 (15) | 24.976 (14) |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 36.642 (15) | 42.556 (18) | 25.059 (16) |
| Fernando Alonso | 36.762 (17) | 42.178 (14) | 25.304 (18) |
| Romain Grosjean | 36.968 (18) | 42.343 (16) | 25.035 (15) |
| Marcus Ericsson | 36.760 (16) | 42.939 (19) | 25.092 (17) |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 37.025 (19) | 42.468 (17) | 25.367 (19) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | 330.3 (205.2) | |
| 2 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 330.1 (205.1) | -0.2 |
| 3 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | Mercedes | 330.1 (205.1) | -0.2 |
| 4 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 328.6 (204.2) | -1.7 |
| 5 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | Mercedes | 327.9 (203.7) | -2.4 |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 326.9 (203.1) | -3.4 |
| 7 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | Renault | 326.7 (203.0) | -3.6 |
| 8 | Lance Stroll | Williams | Mercedes | 326.3 (202.8) | -4.0 |
| 9 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 324.8 (201.8) | -5.5 |
| 10 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 323.8 (201.2) | -6.5 |
| 11 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 323.2 (200.8) | -7.1 |
| 12 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 322.9 (200.6) | -7.4 |
| 13 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 322.2 (200.2) | -8.1 |
| 14 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 321.7 (199.9) | -8.6 |
| 15 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | Renault | 320.3 (199.0) | -10.0 |
| 16 | Pascal Wehrlein | Sauber | Ferrari | 320.2 (199.0) | -10.1 |
| 17 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | Renault | 320.1 (198.9) | -10.2 |
| 18 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | Honda | 315.6 (196.1) | -14.7 |
| 19 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Honda | 315.3 (195.9) | -15.0 |
Drivers remaining tyres
| Driver | Team | Medium | Soft | Super-soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sergio Perez | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Felipe Massa | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Lance Stroll | Williams | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Romain Grosjean | Haas | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | Sauber | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Over to you
Are you expecting a closer race this year? Or will it be a Mercedes walkover?
Share your views on the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in the comments.
JackL
24th June 2017, 23:07
How in the heck did he find almost two seconds between Q1 and Q3???? That is really something.
Gabriel (@rethla)
25th June 2017, 0:07
By cruising around in a detuned car in Q1?
Ajaxn
25th June 2017, 14:03
Race underway, and this prediction comes back to haunt Bottas.
Bottas [Mercedes buffer] starting in P2 gets taken out by kimi [Farari sacrifice] in P3.
Its a good job Hamilton qualified P1, or that move would have put Vettel out ahead on points.
Ajaxn
25th June 2017, 15:02
Second incident of aggressive driving by Ferrari.
This time its Vettel on Hamilton, with the incident coming just before the red flag, and whilst they were all under safety car. Hamilton had a radio message saying the last restart was very close. This time he holds back, allowing the safety car more time to drive away.
Vettel drives into the back of Hamilton, anticipating Lewis might accelerate after the safety car.
To compound matters, Vettel then drives along side Hamilton and turns his car into Hamilton’s front suspension.
If the first touch was an accident, that second touch definitely wasn’t. I wonder what they are saying in their Ferrari team talks? Presumably Ferrari believes their cars are stronger, if not faster than Mercedes.
All this comes after rumours of a team[?] ‘burning oil’ in their engine to aid performance, and
the oil reservoir suspected as installed for that purpose, now being removed. If this is the case it
could see an end to this advantage, and explain their apparent boost in performance this year.
Gigi
25th June 2017, 3:35
This likely will be the most boring race of the 2017 calendar. A processional snoozefest. The only interest will be how Ferrari get Seb ahead of Kimi. Kimi will probably just ease off on the start. Maybe the hapless Lance Stroll will put it in the wall for some interest midfield.
Alex McFarlane
25th June 2017, 8:37
Could it be worse than Sochi? At least the scenery is interesting….
Hugh (@hugh11)
25th June 2017, 9:56
They seem to be able to follow each other closer than they could at Sochi
Thomson (@fish123)
25th June 2017, 3:44
I feel this race will be alot more interesting than last year. Vettel might get ahead of bottas & raikkonen both by the end. Hopefully someone like a Lance Stroll causes a big shunt just to spice up the race
Freguz
25th June 2017, 7:43
How can ERI be second fastest (speed trap) with a year old engine? WEH is 10 km/h slower.
F1 in Figures (@f1infigures)
25th June 2017, 12:35
Wing settings matter too. However, I believe the actual top speeds are significantly higher than those measured in the speed trap, because the speed trap is in a weird place.
Ferrari, Seb fan
25th June 2017, 8:29
Mercs will be wheel to wheel going into turn 8. Both crash and bottas and 13 other cars are out. Safety car comes out and ham, vet, mas, per, stroll and alonso are left. After safety car comes in, all 6 cars fight for victory and alonso take the lead with a VERY late breaking move into turn 1. All the other cars try to pas but can’t. Vettel has a look of a pass but backs off on Hamilton going into turn 8, but ham goes straight on and crashes. Perez and massa both hit each other and retire.Only alonso, Vettel and stroll are left. Vettel attacks alonso and both have a brilliant duel which vettel wins, just. On the final lap on the last straight, alonso’s engine fails. He starts pushing it and vet and stroll help him after the two finish. Alonso get it across the line
Results
Vettel
Stroll
Alonso
Rest retired from race due to damage.
Hugh (@hugh11)
25th June 2017, 9:57
Now THAT would get a 10/10 in “Rate the Race”
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
25th June 2017, 12:54
I assume the race will be a one-stop for everyone (bar special circumstances)?
jay
25th June 2017, 14:39
Well, that was a good prediction!
Strontium (@strontium)
25th June 2017, 15:51
He was indeed correct!
Baron
25th June 2017, 17:42
@strontium
Not a surprise when he’s the cause of all the mess.
f1bobby
25th June 2017, 15:59
Well done Mystic Bottas!
Ruben
25th June 2017, 17:26
Understatement of the year!