Lewis Hamilton could become the second driver in Formula 1 history to win six world championships at the next race.
Michael Schumacher is the only other driver to have won more than five world titles.Hamilton will go into the Mexican Grand Prix 64 points ahead of team mate Valtteri Bottas, the only driver left who can keep him from the title. If Hamilton leaves Mexico with a lead of at least 78 points, he will have won the world championship again.
That will only happen if Hamilton finishes on the podium in Mexico and Bottas finishes several places further behind. The table below breaks down all the scoring possibilities.
The bonus point for fastest lap, which was introduced at the beginning of this year, could also play a role in deciding whether Hamilton wins the title in Mexico for the third year running, or if he has to wait at least another week.
How Lewis Hamilton can win the championship in the Mexican Grand Prix
The table below shows the combinations of finishing positions which would see Hamilton clinch the title in Mexico:
| Hamilton’s finishing position | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th+/DNF | ||
| Bottas’s finishing position | 1st | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 39 | |
| 2nd | 71 | 61 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 | 48 | 47 | 46 | ||
| 3rd | 74 | 67 | 61 | 59 | 57 | 55 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 49 | ||
| 4th | 77* | 70 | 67 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 53 | 52 | ||
| 5th | 79 | 72 | 69 | 66 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 56 | 55 | 54 | ||
| 6th | 81 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 66 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 57 | 56 | ||
| 7th | 83 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 58 | ||
| 8th | 85 | 78** | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 62 | 61 | 60 | ||
| 9th | 87 | 80 | 77* | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 63 | 62 | ||
| 10th | 88 | 81 | 78** | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 67 | 65 | 63 | ||
| 11th+/DNF | 89 | 82 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 65 | 64 | |
*Hamilton will only win the championship in these cases if he also scores the bonus point for fastest lap
**Hamilton will only win the championship in these cases if Bottas does not score the bonus point for fastest lap
NB. If the race is cut short and half-points are awarded, Hamilton will not win the championship in Mexico regardless of the race result.
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Hamilton played down the possibility of clinching the world championship with three races to spare. “I think Mexico is generally our worst race of the year because of the way our car is set up,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough one for us. The last few have been pretty shocking, even though we’ve won the title there.
“I’m hoping for a better weekend but I think it’s going to be very hard to beat the Ferraris with those long straights. We have no hope of getting by on those straights, that’s for sure. But even if you look at the others, the McLarens are picking up some serious speeds on the straights, so are the Red Bulls so I think it will be a tricky one. I don’t anticipate it will be Mexico. I think we will be battling for a good few races.”
Bottas said he isn’t prepared to give up on the championship despite needing to out-score Hamilton heavily over the remaining races to beat his team mate to the title. “I don’t really give up on anything as long as there’s a theoretical chance so there’s no point in that,” he said.
“I’m realistic that I will need to be very lucky, that’s a fact, to win all the rest of the races. But I don’t really think about that much at this point.
“It is my bad, mostly, that I’ve been behind this much in the points compared to Lewis, it’s my fault which I try to fix for the future but it is where we are now and just take it now race by race and see how it goes.”
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SayMe
20th October 2019, 13:49
Yahhh Lewis, show some pity face.
UnterhundF1
20th October 2019, 14:27
It takes some nerve from Merc to pretend that they still are underdogs even though they won both championships already.
“But even if you look at the others, the McLarens are picking up some serious speeds on the straights”
Is Hamilton for real or is he just saying these things to screw with people?
Carlos Medrano (@carlosmedrano)
20th October 2019, 15:58
Bottas needs to do what Rosberg did at the end of 2015, get fired up, win all the last remaining races and then go into the next year on a roll
MEGATRON M12 (@megatron)
20th October 2019, 21:35
And Hamilton still won more races in 2016 than Rosberg. Rosberg won because of poor reliability for Hamilton, and nothing else, especially it anything Rosberg did in 2015.
Chaitanya
21st October 2019, 1:42
Same conspiracy theory again.
KGN11
21st October 2019, 4:26
How’s that a conspiracy theory?
Hamilton had more wins, pole positions and podiums despite all those reliability issues
Esploratore (@esploratore)
21st October 2019, 1:49
Rosberg however still had a better 2016 challenge than other years.
Moi
22nd October 2019, 21:20
Hamilton had _1_ DNF more than Rosberg. To hear his ‘fans’ talking, you’d think he had a failure every other race.
Rosberg was simply more consistent throughout the season, didnt take a lot of risks when ahead and a deserved champion in my view.
OlaRay
23rd October 2019, 11:07
Let me see
Due to poor reliability in qualifying he started way down at
China
Russia
Baku
Spa
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
21st October 2019, 6:00
Exactly win 9 races in a row, then he has a good fighting chance. Just like Rosberg did. :D People will now write reliability this, reliability that. Title is held under his name. Every year there is a chance for poor reliability of your main rival. Rosberg needed to be within striking distance to take benefit from that poor reliability. He did that and won.
‘Bottsberg’ needs to rattle Lewis with a bunch of wins in a row, to the point where Lewis starts to doubt himself.
Marco Marracosss
24th October 2019, 0:05
Rosberg should stick to riding prams. He cant overtake like Lewis, he cant be as fast as Lewis and on and on and on. Readability was one thing but how on earth Rosberg even gained a win at times is simply unbelievable. Loved the moment when Verstapen said he knew Rosberg was going to screw up at the Wall of Champions in Canada. Spin, Spin and spin!!! How won a World chapion beyond me.
Matteo (@m-bagattini)
21st October 2019, 9:55
Since he has to win again, and I’m not entirely happy about that, at least I wish he’ll win in Austin: better audience for him there and better chance to see him celebrate properly, something he deserves. Last year’s win was underwhelming.
Stephen Crowsen (@drycrust)
20th October 2019, 17:53
Lewis is the only driver to not have retired so far this season, so I’m expecting him to finish the race. Every time he has finished it’s been in the points, suggesting he could walk away with the title.
Ninjenius (@ninjenius)
21st October 2019, 10:34
@drycrust Crazy to think that Spain 2016 was the last time he had a DNF not caused by reliability. In the subsequent 74 races he’s had just 2 DNF’s, both engine-related.
Ninjenius (@ninjenius)
21st October 2019, 11:33
My bad, was fuel-pressure in Austria 2018.
Stephen Crowsen (@drycrust)
21st October 2019, 16:58
Assuming the fuel pressure problem was something like a pressure pump failure, then yes, one can argue it wasn’t a driver error. However, if the fuel pressure problem was because the fuel was running out, then that’s a foreseeable and avoidable error.
Mashiat (@mashiat)
20th October 2019, 19:08
Has any driver in history clinched the championship at the same venue three times?
black (@black)
20th October 2019, 20:19
@mashiat Only Senna, 3 championships, all of them clinched at Suzuka and all of them at the second to last race.
anon
20th October 2019, 20:34
@mashiat, from what I can tell, no – the number of drivers who have won three or more titles is already limited, so it’s a rather small pool to look at. In fact, I think that not that many drivers have even managed to secure a title at the same venue twice, let alone three times.
As it happens, the driver whom I think was closest to doing that was Jack Brabham – he twice secured the championship at the US Grand Prix (1959 and 1960), whilst in 1966 he’d become the champion at the race before the US Grand Prix (but, thanks to the points he scored at the US Grand Prix, his team won the Constructors Championship).
Bulgarian (@bulgarian)
20th October 2019, 21:10
For Hamilton the most important thing in Mexican GP is to finish as high as possible. The best strategy is to have a long 1st stint and wait for a lucky Safety car. Mercedes drivers have chosen less Soft tyres than most other teams in Mexico. Even a 3rd place for Lewis will be a great result. Good luck, Lewis!
MEGATRON M12 (@megatron)
20th October 2019, 22:47
Hamilton has 9 wins already this season, more than any other driver can amass, he is already champion. Points is how you classify the losers, wins are how championships should be decided.
John H (@john-h)
20th October 2019, 23:17
I don’t agree, championships are and should be based on results over the season. No Bernie medals please. If it were just based on wins, that would lead to drivers that are championship contenders not really fighting for lower places if races don’t go as planned. F1 championships have always been about consistency over a season, driver and car.
Asanator (@asanator)
21st October 2019, 6:34
Exactly! he should hand Massa the 2008 title back ;)
Dewald Nel (@ho3n3r)
21st October 2019, 7:19
Such flawed logic. If you really believe in say, a scenario where someone with 9 wins and 12 DNFs deserves a title more than someone with 8 wins and 13 2nd places, you are not actually a fan of merit-based championships.
James Goulding
21st October 2019, 6:23
Bottas 9.11
James Goulding
21st October 2019, 6:24
Hope he hits a kink in the road.
BOSS
21st October 2019, 6:28
Go Lewis go
Mr G
22nd October 2019, 1:13
Every race ‘we aren’t expecting to be strong here’… Yeah that Mercedes has been a real slouch all season hey…